UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Tsarukyan Picks & Predictions
Islam Makhachev looks to defend his Lightweight title for the fourth time in UFC 311’s main event.
The 155lb king faces Arman Tsarukyan at LA’s Intuit Dome in a rematch of their 2020 meeting.
In the co-main event, Makhachev’s teammate Umar Nurmagomedov looks to dethrone newly crowned Bantamweight champion Merab Dvalishvili.
TIP 1 - Dvalishvili, Merab to Win - 5/2
Merab Dvalishvili (18-4-0) makes the first defence of his Bantamweight title against Umar Nurmagomedov (18-0-0) this weekend.
The 33-year-old dominated Sean O'Malley over five rounds to take the title in September on the UFC’s Sphere show.
The Georgian defeated three former UFC champions in the run-up to getting his shot at the title in Henry Cejudo, Petr Yan and Jose Aldo.
Known for his high pace and cardio, Dvalishvili brings an 11-2 UFC record with 11 straight wins.
Nurmagomedov is 6-0 inside the Octagon, with three wins by submission and three by decision.
The 29-year-old has only fought one ranked contender, coming out on top in a five-round main event with Cory Sandhagen in Abu Dhabi in August.
Nurmagomedov won the fight against the talented American, however, there were several close rounds.
Initially a striker, Nurmagomedov has developed his wrestling under the guidance of his cousin, the former undefeated UFC Lightweight champion and now coach Khabib.
This is a fascinating battle between two fighters who possess similar skill sets.
The success of Dvalishvili’s Sambo wrestling has not been reliant on control or even securing takedowns, the pure disruption to his opponent’s gameplan has been mentally grinding.
While Nurmagomedov is a talent, the price on the newly crowned champion is too tempting, given his resume and ability to make the fight ugly.
TIP 2 - Moicano, Renato to win - 11/20
Top-ten lightweights Renato Moicano (20-5-1) and Beneil Dariush (22-6-1) clash here.
Moicano comes into this on a four-fight winning run, with three of those coming in 2024.
The Brazilian was last seen defeating Benoit Saint-Denis in the main event in Paris in September, with the doctor stopping the fight in the second round.
The 35-year-old stopped Jalin Turner in the second round at UFC 300 in April, while he started last year with a decision win over Drew Dober.
Moicano has a 12-5 UFC record with six wins by submission, all via rear naked choke and two by KO/TKO.
Dariush made no UFC appearance in 2024, having been stopped twice in the first round in 2023.
The American was finished by title challenger on this card Arman Tsarukyan just over a minute into his last contest in December 2023, while Charles Oliveira also finished him by TKO earlier in the year.
Prior to that, Dariush had racked up an eight-fight winning run that saw him enter the title conversation with victories over the likes of Mateusz Gamrot, Tony Ferguson and Diego Ferreira.
He has a UFC record of 16-6-1 and has five wins by submission and three by KO/TKO.
Both men primarily win their fights by submission or decision and have eerily similar overall records.
However, Moicano’s ferociousness in looking to finish fights in his recent run gives him the edge, and he can extend his winning run here.
TIP 3 - De Ridder, Reinier to win - 17/20
Reinier de Ridder (18-2-0) makes his second UFC appearance here against Kevin Holland (26-12-0).
Former One Championship Light Heavyweight and Heavyweight champion De Ridder is now campaigning at Middleweight in the UFC.
The 34-year-old’s debut win was a third-round submission of Gerald Meerschaert, where after a slow start the Dutchman was able to seal victory.
De Ridder won both One championship titles in two fights against Aung La N Sang, before losing both belts to Anatoly Malykhin.
A submission artist, De Ridder has 11 career submissions, including four from his seven wins in One championship.
Holland has campaigned both at welterweight and middleweight in the UFC and was last seen losing at 185lbs to Roman Dolidze in October.
The American retired on the stool citing a rib injury, suffered as he tried to scramble when grounded by the Georgian in the first round.
Holland is 13-9 1 NC in the UFC and has four wins by submission and two via TKO.
Moving between both divisions, the 32-year-old is 9-5-1 NC at middleweight and 4-3 at welterweight, with a catchweight defeat to Khamzat Chimaev making up his UFC record.
De Ridder has operated as high as heavyweight and, with Holland tending to struggle against heavier opponents at middleweight in more recent times, the Dutchman is the pick to get the victory here.
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Odds correct at time of publication but subject to fluctuation