UFC 306: Sean O’Malley vs. Merab Dvalishvili Tips
Sean O’Malley’s status as one of the biggest stars in the UFC could hit new levels this weekend as UFC 306 heads to the Sphere.
The American faces Merab Dvalishvili in the main event at the high-tech arena with UFC President Dana White promising a visual spectacle never seen before in live sport.
The show which features a number of Mexican fighters on Independence weekend sees the first women’s trilogy in UFC history as Alexa Grasso faces Valentina Shevchenko.
TIP 1 - Sean O'Malley to win by KO, TKO or DQ - 19/10
Sean O’Malley fulfilled his prophecy of becoming champion when he TKO’d Aljamain Sterling at UFC 292 last August to win the Bantamweight title.
The 29-year-old then backed it up in March at UFC 299, dominating Chito Vera in a rematch over five rounds, which avenged his only UFC defeat to date.
Eventually fighting for the title in his 11th UFC appearance, “Suga” has been much hyped with his creative striking, crisp footwork and distinct style catching the eye.
The stats back it up with six KO/TKO wins in the UFC and a striking accuracy of 61%.
In contrast Merab Dvalishvili is a cardio machine who is known for an unrelenting output that disrupts his opponents' gameplan.
In his fight with Petr Yan, the Georgian set a record of 49 takedown attempts in scoring a unanimous victory, despite succeeding in just 11 of those attempts.
Against Jose Aldo, Dvalishvili secured zero takedowns from 16 attempts but was again able to pick up a unanimous victory by taking away his opponent's best weapons.
The question is, can he do the same to O’Malley?
The American’s takedown defence stands at 62% and it will be tested to the limit by Dvalishvili.
Dvalishvili recently posted a picture to his social media receiving treatment for a cut above his eye in sparring, while there are also rumours of a staph infection following images from a recent photo shoot.
This looks O’Malley’s toughest test to date, but given his class at picking his shots it could be just a matter of time before the champion catches his opponent on the way in and secures another title defence.
TIP 2 - Alexa Grasso to Win & Over 3.5 Rounds - 57/50
Alexa Grasso and Valentina Shevchenko meet once again this weekend as they look to put an end to their rivalry.
The Mexican shocked the world when she won the belt with a fourth-round submission against Shevchenko at UFC 285 last March.
A rematch was ordered due to Shevchenko’s long standing as champion. She had held the Flyweight title since defeating Joanna Jędrzejczyk for the vacant belt in 2018 and made seven successful title defences.
The pair’s second meeting at last September's UFC Noche ended in a draw following a controversial 10-8 scorecard awarded to Grasso in a final round she won, but not in the dominant fashion that is usually befitting of the criteria.
UFC President White ordered a third clash at the post-fight press conference, while the pair were also booked as coaches for a season of the Ultimate Fighter reality TV show in the run up to this trilogy.
In both fights Grasso has impressed with her slick boxing, while Shevchenko has been able to secure a number of takedowns.
This looks likely to be another close fight and could well go late, if not be decided by the judges once again.
Grasso, 31, is favoured for the win over the now 36-year-old Shevchenko having secured that submission in the first fight and having had the better potential fight scenarios in the second.
TIP 3 - Any Fighter to win by KO, TKO or DQ (Brian Ortega vs. Diego Lopes) - 39/20
Brian Ortega and Diego Lopes face off this weekend after their original fight was called off at the last minute at UFC 303.
Ortega had told the UFC he was unable to make the Featherweight limit during fight week and the bout was changed to Lightweight.
However, on fight day Ortega pulled out completely and Lopes picked a unanimous-decision win over Dan Ige who stepped in on a matter of hours' notice.
It was undoubtedly a challenging week for Lopes, abandoning his weight cut in the middle of the night, rebooking the Ortega fight on new weight terms and then getting the late switch of opponent at yet another new weight.
The Brazilian's three previous bouts had all ended before the distance with two KO/TKO’s and a submission as he climbed into the top 15 with his wild, all-action style.
Lopes has one defeat in the UFC, which came on his debut when at short notice he pushed undefeated Russian Movsar Evloev close.
Currently sitting at number three in the Featherweight division, two-time title challenger Brian Ortega has suffered only three defeats in the UFC.
T-City lost both of his title attempts against Max Holloway and Alexander Volkanovski, with the other a TKO defeat to Yair Rodriguez in 2022 when he suffered a serious shoulder injury in the first round.
Fast forward to February this year where Ortega returned to submit Rodriguez in their rematch with a third-round triangle choke.
Ortega is an aggressive fighter with wild jiu-jitsu skills and seven finishes from his eight UFC wins, three coming by KO/TKO and four by submission.
This should be an extremely fun fight to watch while it lasts. Both have great grappling so this could well take place on the feet with both capable of landing a knockout blow.