UFC 296: Edwards Vs Covington Tips & Predictions

UFC 296 sees an unbelievable card to end 2023 in Las Vegas this weekend with Leon Edwards defending his Welterweight title against Colby Covington. Six of the top ten ranked fighters at Welterweight face-off on the main card, which is where we’ll focus.

TIP - Leon Edwards split decision win over Colby Covington

Leon Edwards shocked the world when his last minute head kick KO’d Usman at UFC 278 back in August 2022. The Birmingham-based fighter then rounded off their trilogy with a dominant unanimous decision win in March this year in London at UFC 286.

Colby Covington hasn’t been seen in the Octagon since March 2022 when he won a five-round decision over former best friend turned rival Jorge Masvidal. An altercation between the pair outside a Miami restaurant delayed Covington’s return plans, before he weighed in as back-up to Edwards vs Usman III in London which seemingly earned him the next shot at the title.

While we don’t expect the lay-off to overly affect Covington, Edwards could just have the edge here in this ultra-competitive matchup. He effectively dealt with the wrestling and power of Kamaru Usman and with Covington possessing a similar skillset, he could well rinse and repeat his performance from London in March. Expect five rounds with Colby’s superb gas tank, but we are tipping the Brit to edge it on the scorecards.

TIP - Shavkat Rakhmonov 3rd-round submission over Stephen Thompson

We’ll keep this brief. Shavkat Rakhmonov is special.

The Kazak is 17-0 with eight KO’s and nine submissions. In his five fights in the UFC, the division's number five has racked up four submissions and one KO on what seems like an unstoppable run to the title.

Now at 40 years old, the always entertaining Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson will be putting everything he has into earning a last shot at the title after a technically superb stoppage of Kevin Holland in December last year followed by back-to-back losses.

It feels like Wonderboy won’t have enough left in the tank to compete with an undefeated finishing machine 11 years his junior. Wonderboy is notoriously difficult to put away but with Rakhmonov out to make a statement to force a title shot, he can be expected to do so with aplomb.

Tip - Ian Garry UD win over Vincente Luque

All eyes have been on Irish welterweight Ian Garry over the past few weeks for the wrong reasons and he can be expected to be the talk of fight week. The 26-year-old won’t be fazed by all the heat and if anything he will be buoyed by it.

Garry picked apart and dominated wiley veteran Neil Magny in his last outing at UFC 292 and although he didn’t get the finish he looked every inch the future title contender that his 12-0 record suggests.

Former teammate Vincente Luque represents by far Garry’s toughest test to date and he got himself back in the win column in August after back-to-back defeats, earning a five-round decision over former Lightweight Champion Rafael Dos Anjos.

Expect a laser-focused performance by Garry who may have to wait for the judges scorecards again to earn victory here.