2024 ATP Finals Betting Tips
As the tennis season draws to a close, all eyes turn to Turin for the ATP Finals, the prestigious event that marks the culmination of the year-long men’s tour.
The tournament features the top eight singles players and doubles teams, who will battle it out in a unique round-robin format.
This year's edition is particularly noteworthy, as it will be the first time in over two decades that none of the legendary "Big Three" - Novak Djokovic, Roger Federer, or Rafael Nadal - will compete.
With Djokovic sidelined due to injury, the spotlight shifts to a new generation of stars, led by world No.1 Jannik Sinner and reigning Wimbledon champion Carlos Alcaraz.
Tip One: Jannik Sinner to win the Ilie Nastase Group @ 4/9
The first-ever Italian to top the men's world rankings, Sinner ended his country's 48-year men's Slam title drought when he clinched the Australian Open in January, coming from two sets down to outlast Daniil Medvedev.
He carries high expectations, especially because he will be playing in front of his home crowd in Turin. After finishing as runner-up to Djokovic last year, Sinner will be eager to go one step further.
Medvedev, who gained revenge when he knocked Sinner out of this summer’s Wimbledon at the quarter-final stage, won this event in 2020 and reached the final again a year later.
He has an overall 11-5 record in ATP Finals, but his chances of overcoming Sinner in this group look slim because the 23-year-old has prevailed in each of their last seven contests on the surface, including recent quarter-final wins at the US Open and Shanghai Masters.
Sinner also has a 2-1 head-to-head edge over group rival Taylor Fritz, having clinched his second Grand Slam title of the year with a straight-sets win over the American at the US Open.
The Italian has never previously lost to ATP Finals debutant Alex de Minaur, his first opponent, and should only enhance his 7-0 record against the Australian en route to clinching first place in the Ilie Nastase Group
Tip Two: Alexander Zverev to win the John Newcombe Group @ 7/5
Wimbledon champion Alcaraz is the favourite to come out on top in the John Newcombe Group, but in-form Alexander Zverev is capable of toppling the Spaniard.
The tournament’s second seed is riding high after his recent victory at the Paris Masters.
And, as a two-time ATP Finals champion (2018, 2021), his experience could prove vital in plotting a course through the round-robin stage.
Zverev probably learned more from the bitter disappointment of missing out on the semi-finals on sets-won percentage last year after he squandered strong positions in both sets of a loss to Medvedev.
He did beat Alcaraz in three sets in Turin last year and holds a 4-2 head-to-head lead over the Spaniard on hard courts.
After beating Sinner to win the ATP Beijing title in September, Alcaraz has been eliminated from his next two events at the quarter-final and last-16 stage.
But his form is still better than the other two group rivals, Andrey Rublev and Casper Ruud, so he should still go through to the last four.
Ruud, the ATP Finals runner-up in 2022, has lost six of his last seven matches on tour.
Rublev, who beat Alcaraz on clay in Madrid this summer, has struggled to gain much traction on hard courts lately and was beaten in the second round of the recent Moselle Open by world number 51 Lorenzo Sonego.