The Biggest Super Bowl Upsets of All Time
Super Bowl upsets are more common than you might think. The underdog wins the Super Bowl 34.5% of the time, meaning you statistically have a one-in-three chance of backing an upset when you bet on NFL’s biggest game.
Super Bowl betting is huge and few punters stick to a straight-up bet. Most of us look at the handicaps (or point spread) markets, to find better value in the odds.
And this year is no different. While BetUK offers extensive odds on the Super Bowl, it’s fair to say the handicap markets are the most popular.
Why? Because often it feels like betting on the NFL is too easy when there’s a big favourite you know is going to win. Rather than backing the heavy favourite at short odds, why not apply a handicap to their final score and see if they “beat the spread”?
Well, that’s exactly what we’re going to look at here. Below are the five biggest Super Bowl upsets in history based on how the bookies set their odds before the game. Bookmakers gave the favourites a handicap, yet none of them threatened to surpass it.
Amazingly, we haven’t witnessed a Super Bowl shock for the last 20 years that comes close to the below examples. That’s because of two things. First, NFL odds are far more accurate these days, which means there are fewer games where the odds are heavily in one team’s favour. Second, Super Bowls are becoming more competitive, which means there are fewer opportunities for an against-the-odds shock.
Denver Broncos vs Green Bay Packers (Super Bowl XXXII) 1998
Would you bet on a team at 1/8 to win the Super Bowl? Probably not, because there’s almost no value in backing a favourite at such low odds. That’s why punters could bet on Green Bay at even money with a -11 handicap.
They won the NFC Central with a 13-3 record and took a five-game winning streak into the playoffs. QB Brett Favre led the league with 35 passing touchdowns and ended up MVP for the season. Farve and co. crushed the 49ers 23-10 in the NFC Championship game in a supremely controlled performance.
They were big favourites to win the Super Bowl but Denver had other ideas. They'd been forced to settle for second in the AFC West behind the Chiefs despite a steady 12-4 record. They beat Kansas City 14-10 in a famously tight game at Arrowhead Stadium after demolishing Jacksonville in the wildcard playoff.
The Broncos then slipped past Pittsburgh in the AFC Championship game to head to Super Bowl XXXII as big underdogs. Some bookies had them as wide as 9/2 to win.
It was a tight contest but Denver – losers of their previous four Super Bowl appearances – edged it 31-24 when running back Terrell Davis delivered with less than two minutes on the clock. Davis was a sixth-round Draft pick but proved to be an invaluable acquisition for the Broncos.
Kansas City Chiefs vs Minnesota (Super Bowl IV) 1970
In 1969 the NFL and AFL played out their final regular seasons before merging a year later. It seemed ludicrous that American football had two competing leagues that each put a team forward for the World Championship Game (Super Bowl) but weren't connected in the regular season.
The Vikings headed into Super Bowl IV having practically moonwalked through the regular season and playoffs. A 12-2 record in the NFL Central was particularly impressive, as Detroit and Green Bay were hot on their tails for most of the season.
Minnesota, led by Joe Capp, cruised past Cleveland Browns in the NFL Championship Game, where they led 28-0 at half time. They sought to open a fast lead at Super Bowl IV but were knocked sideways by the Chiefs.
Kansas City had snuck into the AFL playoffs after finishing behind Oakland in their division, and played out a miserable 13-6 win over New York Jets in the divisional playoff. After an early blip, they secured a comfortable 17-7 win over Oakland in the AFL Championship Game to secure safe passage to the Super Bowl.
Len Dawson had been throwing well enough for the Chiefs but Kapp was expected to control the game at Tulane Stadium. It didn't go to script for the bookies as the Minnesota – given a -11 handicap – floundered. The Chiefs restricted Minnesota to just 67 rushing yards across the game. They were 16-0 up in the third quarter when the Vikings forced a response, only for Otis Taylor to nail a 46-yard touchdown reception three minutes later. A 23-7 victory was well deserved.
New York Giants vs Buffalo Bills (Super Bowl XXV) 1991
On the face of it, Super Bowl XXV lived up to expectations as being a close game. Both New York Giants and Buffalo Bills headed into the game having 13-3 regular season records. They'd both displayed their defensive excellence during the playoffs. Their showdown in Tampa met expectations, with a narrow 20-19 win for the Giants.
So why did the bookmakers give the Bills a -7 handicap heading into the game? Well, because the Bills were what everyone was talking about. The hype that surrounded their no-huddle offence was real. Buffalo scored 428 points in the regular season that year. They beat Miami 44-34 in the divisional playoff and the Raiders 51-3 in the AFC Championship game.
New York, meanwhile, were defensive masters and had scored just 211 points in 16 regular season games.
All the attention was on Buffalo – as was all the money.
Super Bowl XXV was a tense, tight game. Buffalo were 12-3 up at one stage but Jeff Hostetler recovered from an end-zone tackle to hand Stephen Baker a 14-yard touchdown reception to get back into the game.
Matt Bahr kicked a 21-yard field goal to win it for New York and rock the bookies.
New England Patriots vs St. Louis Rams (Super Bowl XXXVI) 2002
New England's mid-2000s dynasty started with a surprise championship win at the start of the decade. Tom Brady was a year into his career and had only completed one pass in pro football when he began the 2001 season. He was second-choice behind Drew Bledsoe but got his chance in the Pats' third game against Indianapolis Colts, where he helped them to a 44-13 win.
The Patriots finished the season with an 11-5 record that was just enough to win the AFC East. They topped Miami (also 11-5) based on a better divisional record. Had they not won the division then they could easily have lost to Baltimore in the wildcard game.
As it was, New England cruised through the playoffs to reach Super Bowl XXXVI. Many assumed this was where Brady's story would end. After all, St. Louis had carried a 14-2 record into the playoffs, crushed Green Bay 45-17, and edged Philadelphia in the NFC Championship game.
Bookmakers had the Rams handicapped at -14 to win, meaning New England were massive underdogs. St. Louis had beaten their opponents 24-17 in the regular season and won the Super Bowl two years before. All roads pointed to a Rams victory.
But then came a slice of luck, before a slice of genius. Ty Law crossed into the end zone after intercepting a pass and charging 47 yards to score, which put the Pats 7-3 up. Brady then picked out David Patten in the end zone from eight yards. Adam Vinatieri swept a 37-yard field goal through the posts early in the third quarter to build a 17-3 lead.
The Rams hit back with two touchdowns to level the scores, with Ricky Proehl crossing over with 90 seconds on the clock. Were New England going to blow it? Not with Brady in charge. The quarterback guided his team down the field in the dying seconds until Vinatieri stepped up for a 48-yard field goal attempt. He scored as the clock expired to deliver the biggest Super Bowl upset of the modern era.
New York Jets vs Baltimore Colts (Super Bowl III) 1969
Perhaps one of the reasons the Chiefs' remarkable Super Bowl upset against the Vikings in 1970 isn't too well remembered is because it came in the shadow of one of sport's biggest ever upsets. Indeed, if anyone asks ‘what was the biggest upset in Super Bowl history’ then point them this way.
Super Bowl III was meant to be a simple win for Baltimore and the NFL. The Colts headed to Miami with a 13-1 regular season record that saw QB Earl Morrall named player of the year and Don Shula coach of the year.
The Colts were on an eight-game winning streak when they beat Minnesota in the conference championship and then annihilated the Cleveland Browns 34-0 in the NFL Championship Game.
The Jets, by contrast, were supposedly playing in an inferior league and had limped into the AFL Championship game with an 11-3 record. Away from the Shea Stadium, their record was pretty abysmal.
Bookmakers gave Baltimore a -18 handicap, meaning they'd have to win by 19 points or more for people to secure even money on their bets. It turned out to be one of the worst instances of odds setting in history.
It was a weirdly one-sided game and the final score actually flattered Baltimore. Joe Namath controlled the action for New York. He got kicker Jim Turner into the right position three times to score field goals and push the underdogs into a 16-0 lead.
By the time Jerry Hill finally forced the ball into the end zone for Baltimore in the fourth quarter it was too late. Namath and the Jets saw out victory without even throwing the ball.
Namath remains the only QB to win the Super Bowl MVP despite not throwing a touchdown in the game.