Should I Back Favourites at the Cheltenham Festival?

Originating all the way back to 1860, the Cheltenham Festival has gone on to become one of the biggest events in horse racing history. With prize money only surpassed by that of the Grand National, it’s only natural that punters look forward to this event when it rolls around.

The Cheltenham Festival collects several grades of races over its four-day event. Set at the Cheltenham racecourse in March, this race also often coincides with Saint Patrick's Day, making it a popular site for celebrations and excitement. 2024 saw the event run from March 12 to March 15, featuring a total of 28 races. Whether you’re a newcomer or a veteran fan, it’s only natural to wonder about the Cheltenham Festival favourites and how they performed. With that in mind, let’s look at how many favourites have won at Cheltenham, and answer the question: "Should I back favourites at Cheltenham Festival?"

Cheltenham Festival Format

This year’s event began on Tuesday the 12th of March and ran through to Friday the 15th. Each day features seven separate sets of races, with the most prestigious being the Cheltenham Gold Cup set on the final day. Tuesday includes:

• Arkle Challenge Trophy
• Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle
• Champion Hurdle
• Close Brothers Mares' Hurdle
• National Hunt Chase Challenge Cup
• Supreme Novices' Hurdle
• Ultima Handicap Chase

Wednesday contains the following races:

• Brown Advisory Novices' Chase
• Champion Bumper
• Coral Cup
• Gallagher Novices' Hurdle
• Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase
• Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Chase
• Queen Mother Champion Chase

Thursday includes:

• Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup
• Pertemps Final
• Ryanair Chase
• Ryanair Mares' Novices' Hurdle
• Stayers' Hurdle
• TrustATrader Plate Handicap Chase
• Turners Novices' Chase

Friday’s races include:

• Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle
• Cheltenham Gold Cup
• County Handicap Hurdle
• Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle
• Mrs Paddy Power Mares' Chase
• St James's Place Festival Hunter Chase
• Triumph Hurdle

Also, note that there can be changes to this lineup. This was famously seen in the Cathcart Challenge Cup, which was discontinued in 2004 to be replaced with the Ryanair Chase the following year. Similarly, the Centenary Novices' Chase was removed in 2021 to be replaced with the Liberthine Mares' Chase.

Fourteen of these races are in Grade 1, three are in Grade 2, seven are Premier Handicap, and the remaining four are Ungraded.

If you're unaware of what these terms mean, the Grade refers to the peak of racehorse performance. Grade 1 features the fastest, with Grade 2 just behind. Handicaps are races where horses have different weights attached to attempt to bring their performance in line with their opponents.

2024 Cheltenham Festival Results

So how did 2024 play out, and which horses lived up to their predicated performance as the Cheltenham Festival favourites?

Day One:

Of the seven races run on the first day, Cheltenham Festival favourites claimed a total of four wins. These included:

Day Two:

The seven races on day two featured two wins including:

Day Three: The seven races on the third day included three wins from Cheltenham Festival favourites:

Day Four:

The fourth and final day featured only one win from a Cheltenham Festival favourite. This just happened to be the premier event, the Grade 1 Boodles Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase. Here, France’s Galopin Des Champs took home the first position with 10/11 odds, cementing a place in the pantheon of Gold Cup champions.

Overall, 2024 saw a most striking performance from the horses in Grade 1, which claimed victory in exactly half of their races.

Previous Cheltenham Festival Results

You're still wondering: "Should I back favourites at Cheltenham Festival?" For an even more in-depth look at the performance of Cheltenham Festival favourites, let’s turn back the clock even further to the previous years.

• 2023 saw nine of the Cheltenham Festival favourites win first place.
• 2022 saw a huge 12 of the Cheltenham Festival favourites claim first.
• 2021 had eight Cheltenham Festival favourites win.
• 2020 totalled seven wins from Cheltenham Festival favourites.

As a standout performance, the Gold Cup was won by the Cheltenham Festival favourite four out of the last five years, with 2021 being the outlier. This is by no means a sure bet, but it does represent the most statistically standout part of the Cheltenham Festival odds.

Summary

Like any form of betting, there’s never a guarantee to wagering on any horse, and this includes Cheltenham Festival favourites. That said, the performance of these favourites does tend to stand out above that of the other competitors. This is especially true with the Cheltenham Gold Cup favourites, who continually impress and excel over the other horses.

Whether or not wagering on these horses will be worthwhile to you also depends on how you like to bet. A favourite is statistically more likely to win, but this also means that a winning wager on them will see the lowest returns. To the question "Should I back favourites at Cheltenham Festival?", some punters might prefer to instead take riskier bets on longer shots, which would reward with larger payouts should they surprise. Ultimately, it’s about combining the odds with your betting style, and what you find the most engaging and exciting.