Brown Advisory Novices Chase Tips & Predictions
The second race of the day at Cheltenham on Wednesday is also contested by Novices, but this time it is the turn of the chasers.
Once again it is Willie Mullins who will be saddling the favourite, Ballyburn, as well as three further runners in the seven-horse field.
The trophy is certain to be going the way of Ireland, the seven entries in the race all being Irish trained. However, six of the past ten winners of the race were trained in Britain.
14:00 Brown Advisory Novices' Chase (3m½f)
A good place to start when trying to find the winner of the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase can often be the form of those to have contested the novice hurdle races at the festival from the previous year.
Of those in the race to have run at the festival, two of the novice hurdle winners contest in the shape of Ballyburn (Baring Bingham) and Stellar Story (Albert Bartlett). Also in the race are third and fifth from the Albert Bartlett - Dancing City and Lecky Watson.
It is the form of the Baring Bingham last year that looks to be the strongest hurdles form on offer, with Ballyburn being one of the standout performers at the festival 12 months ago.
His 13-length victory was a commanding success and, following a further success at the Punchestown Festival, he went into his debut chase season as the novice chaser to beat.
He started his chasing career in the perfect fashion with a wide-margin win on debut, but when dropped in trip in December for the Wayward Lad Novices' Chase at Kempton, was comprehensively beaten.
Excuses can be made here though, with the minimum trip proving too sharp against possibly the best two-mile novice chaser we have seen this season. Most recently at the Dublin Racing Festival, he was stepped back up in trip and, despite novice jumping on multiple occasions hindering the performance, he finished with aplomb, pulling clear the further they went on the run-in.
A step up in trip to 3 miles for the first time should bring further improvement to the son of Flemenfirth, and he should have too much in the finish up the famous Cheltenham Hill.
As we are accustomed to seeing in recent times, Willie Mullins boasts a fair record in the race with three winners in the past decade, including with the favourite last time.
He has four of the seven runners, and it would be a surprise were he not to win it again. Dancing City and Lecky Watson are his next two in the betting and have proven their stamina over three miles, something Ballyburn has yet to do. Both can be expected to run well and, on balance of their chase form, Lecky Watson can turn the tables with Dancing City from 12 months ago and get the better of him.
Despite this though, both of them will likely be playing for second best, with Ballyburn looking an outstanding selection for the race.