Should I back favourites at the Grand National?
First run in 1839, the Grand National has risen in importance through the years to become the world’s biggest horse racing event. Run at the Aintree Racecourse in Merseyside, England, this race is a famous part of British culture that continues to draw in diverse audiences.
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The actual event is a full festival of different races, with the eponymous Grand National acting as the main attraction on the final day. Taking the form of a handicap steeplechase, the Grand National is famous for its unusually large fences, many of which are given standout names with long-running legacies.
The Grand National also claims fame as the most valuable steeplechase in all of Europe, claiming a record prize of £1 million back in 2014. Watched by an estimated 500-600 million people early in April each year, this event never fails to amaze fans and newcomers alike.
Grand National Format
The primary Grand National race consists of two laps of a race measured at 4 miles and 514 yards, or 6.907 kilometres. This marks it as the longest National Hunt race in all of Britain.
The race takes place over two laps with 16 fences. The first 14 of these fences are jumped twice, while the last two of The Chair and the Water Jump are avoided in favour of a final sprint on the second lap.
While races used to consist of a maximum of 40 horses, the current rules cap the number of racers at 32. This helps encourage safer races, while also changing how odds might play out over the Grand National event.
2024 Grand National Festival Results
For a wider look outside the main event, let's now turn to the other races in the Grand National Festival, and the success rates of the Aintree National favourites. This is separated into three days, with the Grand National special race held on the final day.
- Day One: The first day contained a total of seven races. Four were Grade 1, and the only of the Aintree National favourites to win was Sir Gino in the Boodles Anniversary Grade 1 race.
- Day Two: The second day offered another seven races. Again, only one of the Aintree National favourites managed to pull out a win. This was claimed by Jonbon in the Grade 1 race of My Pension Expert Melling Chase.
- Day Three: The big event on day three saw upset as some of the Grand National favourites like Mahler Mission and Mr Incredible ended up unseating their riders. Fortunately, another favourite of I Am Maximus ended up claiming first place, winning with 7/1 odds.
Of the 20 races run over the three days of the last festival, favourites took home the win in three, including the ultimate event.
Previous Grand National Festival Results
It’s interesting to note that while the winner of the 2024 Grand National was the favourite, favourites generally don’t have a huge win rate throughout Grand National History. For an illustration of this, let’s turn back the clock and examine the performances in years past.
The Last Five Years
In the last five years, the Aintree National Favourites have won three races, providing a win rate of 60%.
The Last Ten Years
The last ten years still only have three winners, dropping the win rate over this period to 30%.
The Last Twenty Years
Going back twenty years includes just one more favourite winning, pushing the win rate to just 20%
The Last Fifty Years
Over the previous 50 years of the Grand National, the total number of winning favourites increased to eight. This drops the win rate even further to just 16%
Overall
According to the official Grand National website, there have been a total of 16 outright or joint-favourites that have won the Grand National since 1900. This means that over the last 124 years, Grand National favourites have won first place just less than 13% of the time.
These statistics also show that the more we approach the modern day, the more likely favourites are to come away with the win. This might illustrate a pattern, it could reflect a simple statistical anomaly, or how a recent reduction in the number of total running horses affects a new style of race.
Summary
Now comes the ultimate question – should I back favourites at Grand National races? If we’re talking about the big event, then the historical odds aren’t in your favour. This is perhaps expected, as a race with so many horses (40 and then 32), means it’s difficult to pick one standout best.
History suggests that there are too many variables to make wagering on Grand National favourites a sure thing. Though favourites are indeed winning more in recent years, this still doesn’t make a bet anything like a guarantee. As for where you should place your bet, that's ultimately a personal question that only you can answer. How you wager is up to you, and where you balance the risk/reward equation. Betting on favourites can absolutely be worthwhile if that's your style, but don't feel limited to following that wagering route alone.