2024-08-21

Predicting the Next Ballon d'Or winners

Betting on the Ballon d’Or is a lot more competitive now the likes of Lionel Messi and Cristisano Ronaldo are stepping away from football’s centre stage. Messi won the gong in 2023 as recognition for his World Cup triumph with Argentina the year before.

But with Messi in the MLS and Ronaldo embedded in Saudi club football, it finally looks as though a new generation for footballers will have their turn to compete for the Ballon d’Or.

This is a European Championships year, meaning the 2024 winner is likely to go to a player who helps deliver the goods for their country in Germany. Saying that, Brazilian Vinicius Junior is the Ballon d’Or betting favourite right now.

The next five years will be an interesting period for the Ballon d’Or. It will feature two European Championships, a World Cup, two Copa Americas, and the usual cycle of club football tournaments.

We’ve picked five players we believe stand the best chance of winning the Ballon d’Or between 2024 and 2029:

Ballon d’Or Winners of the Future

Before we look at our list, it’s worth remembering that the Ballon d’Or judges tend to focus on international success in years where major tournaments have taken place. In the fallow years, then a player who helps their side win the Champions League is most likely to win.

Vinicius Junior

No wonder, then, that Vinicius Junior tops the Ballon d’Or betting this year. He catapulted Real Madrid to a 15th European crown in 2024 and is looking to fire Brazil to Copa America glory this summer.

Vinicius is a sporting superstar but has also been forced to fight extreme racism at club level. This has cast him into the wider media spotlight and his ability to express himself clearly and emotionally means his impact goes way beyond the game.

If Vinicius doesn’t win this year then he almost certainly will soon. Whether it’s via the club route or helping Brazil win the World Cup in 2026, the Ballon d’Or is almost guaranteed to fall at his feet eventually.

Jude Bellingham

A more realistic option in 2024 and perhaps in 2028 is Jude Bellingham. The England superstar dominated La Liga in 2023/24 and is Real Madrid’s most important player already.

Bellingham is clean cut, marketable, speaks well, and has fans all over the world. He is the sort of player Ballon d’Or judges want at their ceremony. He also won the Kpa Trophy in 2023.

If he helped deliver European Championships success for England and Bellingham would have almost certainly won the Ballon d’Or at the end of the year. He might struggle to do so again in 2026 as England are unlikely to win a sizzling World Cup across North America. But they are joint Euros hosts in 2028 and the stars could align here for another Bellingham gong.

Kylian Mbappe

Neymar arguably missed out on multiple Ballon d’Or wins because of Messi and Ronaldo. Well, Kylian Mbappe doesn’t have that problem. The new Real Madrid sensation is already a two-time World Cup winner and his sheer excellence meant France were joint-favourites to win Euro 2024 before losing out to Germany.

Mbappe made the Ballon d’Or podium for the first time in 2023, coming third behind Messi and Erling Haaland.

It’s practically inconceivable that he will not win this gong between now and 2029. France have three opportunities to win major trophies and Real will be in La Liga and Champions League contention each season.

There’s a very real possibility that the top-three names at a future Ballon d’Or awards night all represent Real Madrid.

Harry Kane

Perhaps the outsider in this list, Harry Kane had two BIG chances to win the Ballon d’Or. The first was 2024 if his goals led England to European Championship glory. The second is in 2026 when England go for the World Cup.

Kane is almost guaranteed to win titles at Bayern Munich and maintain his already-hot scoring rate. This, coupled with a Champions League push in 2026, could set him up for a glorious World Cup.

The stars need to align for Kane eventually. He turns 31 this year so the 2026 World Cup may be his last chance to challenge for the Ballon d’Or.

Erling Haaland

Haaland is on the other end of the scale to Kane. He’s only 23, has already won the treble in England, and is a goalscoring machine. He finished second in the 2023 Ballon d’Or behind Messi.

The only thing that lets Haaland down is the international stage. He isn’t going to deliver a major trophy for Norway. Even making a major tournament would be an achievement. It means Haaland’s best chances of winning the Ballon d’Or will come in 2025 and 2027, when there’s no World Cup, European Championships, or Copa America.

If he keeps up his scoring rate at Manchester City and delivers another Champions League title in 2025 or 2027 then he will almost certainly win the Ballon d’Or.

How is the Ballon d’Or Winner Selected?

The Ballon d’Or is selected by a panel of journalists. One journalist from each of the top 100 countries in world football votes for their preference.

Jurors are given a list of 30 players and they need to rank their top six in order of preference.

Editorial staff at France Football and L’Equipe determine the 30-player shortlist.

When is the Ballon d’Or Winner Announced?

The Ballon d’Or used to focus on calendar years but now it looks at player achievements over the course of a season. This makes it a little easier to judge.

The Ballon d’Or winner is announced at a ceremony in Paris every October. This year’s Ballon d’Or ceremony will take place on 28 October 2024, alongside the Kopa Trophy ceremony and the Ballon d'Or Féminin ceremony.