Is the 'New Manager Bounce' a Myth?
The new manager bounce is something every Premier League club chairman needs when their side is in desperate measures. A fresh face in the dugout, a renewed sense of optimism in the stands, and a respite from the critics – at least for now.
Appointing new managers midway through campaigns has its risks. For a start, the cost of replacing a boss and their backroom staff midway through their contracts, as well as hiring a new set-up, can spiral into the millions of pounds.
So, why do clubs do it? In part for stability, in part for an immediate boost. The “New Manager Bounce” aims to rekindle optimism in a club and return the team to winning ways.
But how real is it?
New Manager Bounce Origins
Look at the list of any Premier League club's past managers and you’ll notice a pattern. Until the 1970s bosses were rarely sacked without having at least five or six years in charge. The cost involved in the overhaul was too much. Managers were trusted to manage the entire club, not just the team.
That all began to change in the 1990s. When the Premiership (as it was known then) launched in 1992 the mind-boggling sums of money on offer meant club owners could afford to sack their managers but, conversely, couldn’t afford to be relegated.
They couldn’t ditch the players, so they sacked the manager. The 1990s was where the New Manager Bounce theory began, although it wasn’t until the 2000s that the name was actually coined.
When Do EPL Managers Get Sacked?
The Premier League is a special case when it comes to managerial sackings. Before we look at how new managers perform, it’s worth examining when club owners finally have enough of their current coaches.
Data from FBref found most Premier League managerial sackings come in the weeks before Christmas, often during the November international break. This makes sense, as clubs who endure a bad four games over Christmas can suddenly fall into crisis.
What’s more, owners are more likely to give new managers some spending money in January, rather than splashing the cash on transfers for a boss they’re going to ditch anyway.
So, if you’re betting on a new manager at your club, consider November and December as the likely moment of their departure.
Average Points From New Manager Bounce
The other common time Premier League clubs sack their managers is in April during the season run-in. This makes sense if a club is facing relegation or is struggling to make it into Europe. The idea is to chuck the manager and pray the new guy can inspire a positive change.
David Moyes was famously ditched as Manchester United boss in April 2014 on the day his team couldn’t qualify for the upcoming season’s Champions League. Ryan Giggs took over, nailed a 50% win rate from four games, and had fans begging for him to be made the permanent boss. United went with Louis van Gaal instead that summer.
OLBG crunched the numbers of 159 managerial appointments made during Premier League campaigns (excluding any done between May and August). They found a new manager earns 7.31 points on average from their first six games.
That’s effectively two wins and a draw. When you consider 18 is the maximum and 0 the minimum points a new boss could earn from their first six outings, new managers average a 40% hit rate.
Best And Worst Managerial Bounces
Some clubs do managerial bounces better than others. Tottenham have benefited most in the Premier League era, although they have gone through 17 bosses since 1992 (not including caretakers). Three of their managers rank in the top 12 new appointments since 1992:
- Tim Sherwood – 16 points
- Antonio Conte – 14 points
- Harry Redknapp – 13 points
All three managers recorded close to 50% win percentages. None of them won a trophy.
Other top-performing new managers include:
- John Gregory | Aston Villa – 15 points
- Gerard Houllier | Liverpool – 15 points
- Thomas Tuchel | Chelsea – 14 points
- Avram Grant | Chelsea – 13 points
- Kenny Dalglish | Liverpool – 13 points
- Glenn Roeder | Newcastle United – 13 points
Glenn Roeder deserves a shout-out here for stepping up as Newcastle’s boss in 2006. He took them from relegation contenders to seventh in his first season. None of the other managers named here joined relegation-threatened clubs.
As for the worst managerial appointments, there is one stand-out winner. Mick McCarthy is the only boss not to record a point in any of his six games in charge. His Sunderland side were already on course for relegation in 2002/03. McCarthy confirmed it.
The worst-performing new managers are:
- Mark McGhee | Leicester City – 2 points
- Kevin Keegan | Newcastle United – 2 points
- Stuart Gray | Southampton – 2 points
- Dick Advocaat | Sunderland – 2 points
- Paul Jewell | Derby County – 1 points
- Bryan Robson | West Bromwich Albion – 1 points
- Terry Connor | Wolverhampton Wanderers – 1 points
- Mick McCarthy | Sunderland – 0 points
Remember, this only focuses on those who achieved six games in charge. In 2022/23 Leeds United went through four managers. Two of them – Michael Skubala and Sam Allardyce – lasted just three and four games in charge respectively. Neither won a single match.
Opta analysis before Allardyce’s appointment at Elland Road found new managers joining a relegation-threatened club with fewer than 10 games remaining have a 30% chance of staying up.
However, the big factor here is league position when the new boss arrives. Teams that are outside the relegation zone when swapping their manager are far more likely to survive than those in the bottom three.
Does A New Manager Guarantee A Win?
Fans hope for an immediate boost when a new manager comes in and nothing compares to winning that first game in charge. But how often do new managers get their debut win?
The stats suggest it's usually boom or bust for the new boss. They win 36.02% of the time, compared to a 39.13% loss rate. A draw occurs 24.84% of the time. Therefore a club has roughly a two-in-three chance of claiming something from their new manager’s first outing.
Is The New Manager Bounce Real?
As you’ll notice from the above stats, the most successful new managers are those appointed to top-half clubs. The least successful are usually entering a dog fight at the bottom of the table.
In the 2022/23 Premier League season the average points of the three relegated teams was 30. That equates to 0.78 points per game, or 4.74 points over six games. If a new manager on average delivers 7.31 points over their first six games, then it stands to reason that the New Manager Myth is not a myth, it’s real.
However, this is assuming every club that sacks a manager merely needs to achieve the bare minimum to avoid relegation. Chelsea sacking Thomas Tuchel in October 2022 and replacing him with Graham Potter was not a desperate act to help avoid the drop. Chelsea needed more than the 1.2 points per game that an average new manager delivers.
They were sixth in the league after six games. Potter went unbeaten in his first five Premier League outings, claiming 10 points, before a 4-1 defeat to Brighton exposed the fissures raging through his squad.
Potter achieved the new manager bounce yet was sacked on 2 April 2023 after results slumped.
Reason dictates, then, that top-half clubs benefit from the new manager bounce, while relegation-threatened sides can’t rely on a fresh face to reverse their fortunes.