US Presidential Election Betting Odds
The US election odds are in constant flux as Donald Trump and Kamala Harris battle it out to become the next president – and BetUK has you covered for US election betting.
The Republican and Democrat candidates are neck-and-neck in the polls and practically inseparable in the US presidential election odds too.
Americans vote on November 5 for their next president, with Joe Biden stepping down after just one term. Trump thought he had the election sewn up in July when Biden’s approval ratings plummeted.
However, the Kamala Harris odds have collapsed since she replaced Biden on the Democrat ticket and this is now a very real contest.
Who will win the vote? It’s hard to know from here, but the next US presidential election 2024 odds certainly give us an indication of what might happen.
US Election Odds
Rarely do the presidential election odds fluctuate as much as they have done for Trump vs Harris. Both candidates have been firm favourites in this race at some point, and both rank outsiders.
Generally, though, they are priced within the same parameters in the BetUK US election odds.
Here’s how they look right now:
Trump Odds
Trump was once 4/6 (60% probability) to be the next president. Not anymore. His odds since Harris replaced Biden have bounced between 6/5 and 4/5 – a probability range of 45% to 55%.
That’s not too bad for such a controversial political figure who splits opinion across the country. Trump is very much in this race.
Harris Odds
The latest Kamala Harris odds of winning suggest she is also around the 50% mark, but her range is much tighter than Trump’s. Odds of 21/20 to 10/11 over the past month carry a range of 48.8% to 52.4%.
The Harris odds are less volatile and therefore more reliable for betting.
How US Presidential Election Odds Work
In order to understand what the Harris and Trump odds shift so readily, we need to look at two core variables that affect price changes.
The first is the polls. If data shows Harris is polling well across the country and in key swing states, then bookmakers shrink their odds. Likewise, if Trump is faring badly then his price inflates.
Remember, Trump and Harris need 270 electoral college votes to be named president. They earn these votes from individual states across the country. Beat your opponent in one state – even if it’s by 0.5% – and you claim all that state’s electoral college votes. That’s why swing state polling is just as important as nationwide polling.
Bookmakers also take into account the weight of bets from punters on each candidate. When Trump survived the assassination attempt this summer, his odds nosedived as bettors backed him heavily. Biden – his opponent at the time – saw his odds balloon.
Bettors are always looking for value and, with the polls so tight, it’s no wonder Harris and Trump keep switching positions between favourite and underdog.
US Election Betting Tips
Now we know how the US election 2024 odds work and why they move, we can look at some tips for betting on the November 5 showdown. BetUK offers more than just the straight-up bet on who will win the US election. There are a number of additional bets you can place, so check out these tips below:
Swing States Betting
Swing states will decide the 2024 US election, that’s for sure. There are seven in play: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Harris needs to win Pennsylvania to stand any chance of reaching 270. Trump is desperate to win Arizona and Georgia.
BetUK offers odds on all swing states. The likes of Pennsylvania and Nevada are effectively toss-ups. Accurately betting on swing states is therefore a little tricky.
The best thing to do is focus on research. There are swing state poll trackers out there that indicate whether Trump or Harris have a lead. If the margin is +4 within a month of the election then that candidate should seal victory in the state. Any less and the margin for error makes it a risky bet.
Popular Vote Betting
A candidate can secure the presidency without even securing the most votes. This is because the electoral college maths determine who wins the US election, not the total number of votes cast.
Hillary Clinton won three million more votes than Trump in 2016 and still lost. The same happened to Al Gore when up against George W. Bush in 2000.
The Democrats will likely win the popular vote this year. They are expected to win heavily in the coastal states of California and New York. However, the electoral college maths means the Republicans have a near-equal chance of winning the election.
From a betting perspective, backing the Dems to win the popular vote is a near-given.
US Presidential Election Betting
Finally, let’s look at who will be president of the United States next. At the time of writing, Trump is the 5/6 favourite, while Harris is priced at Evens. The implied probability difference is minimal, and their odds are always flipping.