US Presidential Election Betting Guide

The US election odds are in constant flux as Donald Trump and Kamala Harris battle it out to become the next president – and BetUK has you covered for US election betting.

The Republican and Democrat candidates are neck-and-neck in the polls and practically inseparable in the US presidential election odds too.

Bet on the US Presidential Election

Americans vote on November 5 for their next president, with Joe Biden stepping down after just one term. Trump thought he had the election sewn up in July when Biden’s approval ratings plummeted.

However, the Kamala Harris odds have collapsed since she replaced Biden on the Democrat ticket and this is now a very real contest.

Who will win the vote? It’s hard to know from here, but the next US presidential election 2024 odds certainly give us an indication of what might happen.

US Election Odds

Rarely do the presidential election odds fluctuate as much as they have done for Trump vs Harris. Both candidates have been firm favourites in this race at some point, and both rank outsiders.

Generally, though, they are priced within the same parameters in the BetUK US election odds.

Here’s how they look right now:

Trump Odds

Trump was once 4/6 (60% probability) to be the next president. Not anymore. His odds since Harris replaced Biden have bounced between 6/5 and 4/5 – a probability range of 45% to 55%.

That’s not too bad for such a controversial political figure who splits opinion across the country. Trump is very much in this race.

Harris Odds

The latest Kamala Harris odds of winning suggest she is also around the 50% mark, but her range is much tighter than Trump’s. Odds of 21/20 to 10/11 over the past month carry a range of 48.8% to 52.4%.

The Harris odds are less volatile and therefore more reliable for betting.

How US Presidential Election Odds Work

In order to understand what the Harris and Trump odds shift so readily, we need to look at two core variables that affect price changes.

The first is the polls. If data shows Harris is polling well across the country and in key swing states, then bookmakers shrink their odds. Likewise, if Trump is faring badly then his price inflates.

Remember, Trump and Harris need 270 electoral college votes to be named president. They earn these votes from individual states across the country. Beat your opponent in one state – even if it’s by 0.5% – and you claim all that state’s electoral college votes. That’s why swing state polling is just as important as nationwide polling.

Bookmakers also take into account the weight of bets from punters on each candidate. When Trump survived the assassination attempt this summer, his odds nosedived as bettors backed him heavily. Biden – his opponent at the time – saw his odds balloon.

Bettors are always looking for value and, with the polls so tight, it’s no wonder Harris and Trump keep switching positions between favourite and underdog.

US Election Betting Tips

Now we know how the US election 2024 odds work and why they move, we can look at some tips for betting on the November 5 showdown. BetUK offers more than just the straight-up bet on who will win the US election. There are a number of additional bets you can place, so check out these tips below:

Swing States Betting

Swing states will decide the 2024 US election, that’s for sure. There are seven in play: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Harris needs to win Pennsylvania to stand any chance of reaching 270. Trump is desperate to win Arizona and Georgia.

BetUK offers odds on all swing states. The likes of Pennsylvania and Nevada are effectively toss-ups. Accurately betting on swing states is therefore a little tricky.

The best thing to do is focus on research. There are swing state poll trackers out there that indicate whether Trump or Harris have a lead. If the margin is +4 within a month of the election then that candidate should seal victory in the state. Any less and the margin for error makes it a risky bet.

Popular Vote Betting

A candidate can secure the presidency without even securing the most votes. This is because the electoral college maths determine who wins the US election, not the total number of votes cast.

Hillary Clinton won three million more votes than Trump in 2016 and still lost. The same happened to Al Gore when up against George W. Bush in 2000.

The Democrats will likely win the popular vote this year. They are expected to win heavily in the coastal states of California and New York. However, the electoral college maths means the Republicans have a near-equal chance of winning the election.

From a betting perspective, backing the Dems to win the popular vote is a near-given.

US Presidential Election Betting

Finally, let’s look at who will be president of the United States next. At the time of writing, Trump is the 5/6 favourite, while Harris is priced at Evens. The implied probability difference is minimal, and their odds are always flipping.

Effectively, Trump and Harris have a 50% chance each of winning the US election.

So what does this mean for your bets? How can you accurately predict the election winner based on such even odds? Well, you can’t. This isn’t like Barack Obama vs Mitt Romney, where the incumbent president was a shoo-in to secure a second term.

The betting odds are so even that many punters are hedging their bets by backing both candidates and locking in a win regardless of the outcome. It works by waiting for one candidate’s odds to rise and then backing them, knowing the market will eventually flip. Once it does shift, you can back the other candidate at high odds too.

If you don’t feel comfortable backing one candidate in what is effectively a coin-toss election, then this form of betting might be for you.

When Will US Election Bets Pay Out?

Punters who back the winning candidate in the US presidential election will enjoy a payout once the election is over. However, in 2020 there was uncertainty over when many bettors would be paid.

That’s because Trump and his team contested the election result despite the electoral college maths indicating that Biden had won.

The problem is, bookmakers cannot pay out until the result is official. Usually the losing candidate concedes defeat on the night (or early morning) of the election and, in doing so, confirms their rival as the winner.

But Trump didn’t do this. He tried to go through the courts to overturn the election result and delay the inevitable. Some punters were only paid out their winnings when the courts rejected the appeals and the electoral college officially cast their votes.

There’s a lot of uncertainty in 2024 and whether Trump will concede defeat, if indeed he loses the election. He maintains he was robbed of the 2020 vote despite no evidence of voter fraud.

All being well punters will be paid out once the result is known after election night.